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JLC: David Hess deserved better.

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After Monday night’s game, our own Jason La Canfora submitted the following…

On a night when he was, for those two hours in Toronto, the best pitcher on the planet – overpowering and bewildering the Blue Jays for inning after inning – it should not have ended that way. Hess, 25, should not have had to glance in shock, if not outright despair, from the mound at his oncoming manager, and then cover his mouth with his glove, with the whole baseball world watching on those live whiparound highlight shows. He should not have had to seemingly ask his skipper if this was a cruel April Fool’s joke, and then instantly compose himself and feign a smile and trudge to the dugout like a good soldier. Just to make way for a Double-A arm who is only on the roster for another 10 days until his Rule V status disappears and he cane be sent to Bowie – a place Hess knows well.

Let’s be very clear about Game 4 of this already bizarrely-interesting Baltimore Orioles 2019 season, and what it means. No one Trusts The Process more than I do. It was a masterstroke for John and Louis Angelos to assemble this brain trust (and my peers here at B-More Opinionated would agree). No one could be happier about the transition from the old-and-backward infighting of the decline of the Buck Showalter/Dan Duquette regime to this fresh, forward-thinking, inclusive, more open era of Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde. I strongly believe it will work. Monday night changes none of that. But this was a misstep. An overthink. Doesn’t sit right with me

Yes indeed, David Hess deserved better.

Hyde has already won me over with his transparency and a willingness to give guys a blank slate, and with the organic esprit de corps that he’s fostered. He seems a great fit for this youthful bunch of (hopefully) overachievers. He is focused on the big picture and will prize player development above all else. This looks like a scrappy team, with a scrappy manager. After 2018, sign me up for scrappy all day and night.

And I wish Hyde didn’t reach an inflection point like this, oh, roughly 35-innings into his big-league managing career.  But he did. And I wish he had done things differently, and I wonder if at some point years later he thinks back on this night in Toronto and feels the same way.

It will all pass (well, for everyone except the kid who will spend the rest of his career wondering if he would’ve thrown the 300th no-hitter in the entire history of MLB). I assume the early cache Hyde has built up and the laundry-cart celebrations and all and all won’t cause any puzzled looks in the clubhouse to linger.

But Hess was bailing out his rookie skipper for the second time in less than a week, did it as well any human being possibly could have, and then had to make way for Pedro Araujo with a six-run lead (not quite Buck bringing in Ubaldo instead of Britton in Toronto, but ugly just the same). Hess had thrown just 82 pitches, hovering between 94-and-96 mph with his fastball the entire time, easily repeating his delivery, showing no signs of fatigue or loss of focus, walking only one, without having to break a sweat or pitch in any high-leverage situations. He got pulled off the mound to a chorus of boos from a sparse Rogers Centre crowd having thrown over 13 pitches in an inning just once (way back in the fourth), and having required more than five pitches in an at bat just five times all night.

He appeared to still be very much at his best; better than he had ever been before. Then it was all over.

Recall how we got here in the first place. Hess was scheduled to start the series opener in Toronto all along, but, with the Orioles down, 6-1, in the sixth inning on Opening Day in New York last Thursday, he was summoned in a mop-up role when the O’s did in fact look like a AAA team against the Bronx Bombers. Hess threw 42 pitches in eating up two (meaningless?) scoreless innings despite the Orioles about to throw an opener in Game 2. Hmm.

Monday night, with the bullpen already in disrepair (and no sleight to Hyde there; he was dealt this hand and navigating through this season would be a burden for any staff) Hess was electric from the first batter he faced. He was handcuffing right-handed hitters with an in-running fastball and blowing by the Jays with an elevated heater and having command of his entire arsenal.

From the broadcast booth Mike Bordick noted the nasty spin Hess was creating with his release point, and the Blue Jays were guessing from the start; catcher Jesus Sucre seemed one step ahead with each finger he threw down. Hess never had to throw a single pitch with less than a four-run lead, sailing through three innings facing just nine hitters on 28 pitches (only 10 balls), before he had to extend in the fourth.

It required 27 pitches to navigate that inning, with a lead-off walk reaching second on a wild pitch. Billy McKinney, the lone baserunner, never advanced from. The O’s were up, 5-0, with the middle of the order due up. You wanna yank the starter there, with three relievers available, great.

Hess required a mere 11 pitches to dominate the Jays in the fifth inning on a weak pop and two strikeouts. He’s now in line for the win. You wanna pull him then? Okay, I get it. Don’t want to run up the pitch count. It’s early in the year. Big picture. Still only half-way, roughly, to a no-no, anyway, and even if the pen blows the game, you’re supposed to be the worst team in baseball anyway.

Sixth inning: 13 pitches, never goes full count on anyone, turns the order over on a pop fly, swinging strikeout and a liner to Chris Davis. It’s the first hard hit ball of the night, by any measure. You take the kid out here, I’m certainly playing it all out in my mind, and fast-forwarding in my head to the post-game press conference, but he’s at 75 pitches, and the lead has now been extended to 6-0.

Would I have loved it? Nah. I can’t lie. But I wouldn’t be writing a column about it, either. Go talk to Hess in the dugout – or back to the clubhouse if you prefer– and handle the business there. But if it’s all about pitch count, end it there. Why let him get any closer to history?

Instead, Hess comes out to start the seventh, battles Brandon Drury for eight pitches, gets a line-out to short, and here comes Hyde. “I let him go as far as I could possibly let him go,” Hyde told Gary Thorne in the post-game show on MASN. “… It was just the right thing, long term, obviously, for him, for his health, for the ball club.”

I believe Hyde is being sincere with this, and you could tell how his stomach was turning over this decision, but then, again, why start the seventh? And at this point, why not let Hess at least finish the inning and end it on something of his own terms? If he surrenders a hit, the Rule V arm is already loose (and ready to implode). If Hess gets through that inning, talk to him in the dugout before the eighth.

If he was already at 100 pitches that’s one thing … but now at 82 I’m supposed to believe his arm will fall off with one more pitch? With off days and inevitable rain outs to come, and that Norfolk shuttle primed to exploit if Hess needs additional rest, now at pitch 83 there is suddenly imminent irreparable damage ahead? I’m old enough to remember Mychal Givens – probably the biggest trade chip left in the organization – getting stretched perhaps beyond the limit just this weekend in Yankee Stadium – pitching two days in a row and throwing 49 pitches in miserable conditions Sunday. It’s April for him too, but one day later now Hess’s arm is going to fall off if he tries to complete the seventh inning? 

The last 10 batters Hess faced since issuing his only walk (in reverse order): Liner to infield, liner to infield, strikeout (swinging), popup, strikeout (looking), strikeout (looking), popup, strikeout (looking), strikeout (swinging), strikeout (swinging). The next three batters due up – Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk and Rowdy Tellez, were a combined 0-for-6 with three strikeouts, two weak pops and a flyball.

If there had been any sign of distress, go get him. Any laboring or falling off in his delivery or walking guys, okay. But the last seven outs required a total of 32 pitches. At the very least, that seventh inning belonged to Hess. Imagine what went through his mind, dreaming about something like this from the moment he learned to throw a baseball, being at the very pinnacle despite the unenviable position he was put in, and now with MLB Network breaking into show every pitch it’s taken away to preserve him for later in a rebuilding season?

He will never utter a bad word about the situation, even under his breath. But just go back to the video clip when he was told his night is over. It says it all. 

Having watched Hess pitch with regularity since first seeing him at Frederick in 2015, he is an easy guy to root for. He is a tremendous young man who has earned his way up each wrung of the minors with no fanfare. Imagine what him tossing a no hitter would have meant to every other non-top-30 prospect in the system? What could that have done for his confidence?

Part of the joy – and, more to the point in rebuilding campaigns, reward – of following every pitch of a 162-game season is the unexpected twists and turns. This will be a long and bleak season. We get it. That’s what we’re signing up for. So when a unicorn like this pops up, you tend to want to see it live as long as it can and, well, simply be entertained.

With my daughter next to me on the couch and my son in the rocking chair nearby and the excitement building in a season of zero expectations and the kids getting into it, I didn’t want to see it end that way. Honestly, if I was home alone I’d probably feel much the same way. Perhaps, I’m being selfish. Or maybe we deserved better, too?  

A Position to Watch Out For

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Without a doubt, this is my favorite time of the sports calendar. The NCAA Tournament is in full swing, the NBA Playoffs are just a week away, NFL Draft preparation is heating up, and the Orioles just got swept for the first time this season. Although each of those topics deserves their own blog, this week — and probably the next few weeks — will be spent on the third one listed: the NFL Draft.

Likely next week, I will conduct a full 2019 Mock Draft, but to begin my analysis for the April 25 weekend by looking at an underrated position that I think the Ravens could target. Now, this doesn’t mean that I expect them to snag a player of this role in the first few rounds, but I do think they may look for a contributor at the spot. As background, I should mention that I’ve seen multiple players at the position mocked to the Ravens this week, including two players in two rounds by NFL.com’s Chad Reuter.

I may have buried the lead too far here, but the position I’m talking about here is cornerback. Look, I get that this isn’t a position of need. Rather, it could easily be considered the strongest position on the Ravens’ roster. This year, Baltimore looks primed to feature Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Carr, Jimmy Smith, Tavon Young, and some combination of Anthony Averett and Maurice Canady at the position. Undoubtedly, you can do much worse than a group with those names — we’ve even seen that in Baltimore in the early 2010s.

But before you pick me apart for even considering a cornerback in this year’s draft, let’s look closer at the depth that this team has. Of course, Marlon Humphrey is an absolute stud who will be an unwavering force on the defense not only this year but for the foreseeable future, too. Beyond him, however, there are two question marks. With Brandon Carr, the concerns are much less with durability but with age. Carr had a tremendous 2018 campaign, but he will eventually show signs of slowing down as he gets further into his 30s. Before long, DeCosta will be looking for his replacement. If it were just Carr, an easy answer would be either Averett or Canady, but the elephant in the CB room is actually Jimmy Smith and his massive contract.

As has been eluded to on the podcast, Smith is surely nearing his dying days with the Ravens, even as he remains one of the top-two most talented corners on the roster. Simply put, Smith is too unpredictable and inconsistent —  in both his play and his health — to be kept at his salary. Many, including me, even saw his departure coming this year, whether that be a permanent leave or a short one before coming back on a smaller deal. Regardless, Smith remains on the roster to this point, though 2019 may be his last year in Charm City.

If that is the case, replacing Carr and Smith cannot be done with Averett and Canady. Obviuosly, a wrench in my thinking here is free agency, as the Ravens could certainly bring in a #2 guy in that manner. At the same time, Baltimore typically does not make such signings, especially at cornerback. They’ll have more cap space than they’ve had in years, but DeCosta should find that the money would be better spent addressing the pass rush or the receiving core. To that point, he’ll want to provide reliable backup through the draft, and for me, that insurance should be given a year to develop, meaning the player should be taken now, rather than later.

As I mentioned previously, by no means do I think this selection should happen with the teams first three selections, as the holes at WR, OL, and EDGE are far more important at this point. However, if the Ravens are able to trade back from pick-22 to get additional selections, I would not be surprised to see a CB taken late in the 3rd-round, where value can be found. At that point, the Ravens may not get a Humphrey-caliber talent, but could get a long, athletic corner who could play opposite of him and produce better than Averett and Canady. As I’m writing, I feel it’s very important to note that I still do really like both Averett and Canady, and I think they could be important players in the years to come. I don’t think either of them could be relied on to play #2, but I think they could be extremely strong rotational cover men. In reality, though, the Ravens will eventually need more than rotational backs, or else they may fall back into the issues they struggled with the last time they were a Super Bowl contender.

WHAT IS HAPPENING

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I think it’s safe to say that the Orioles’ rebuild is complete! After a tough start to the year on a 6-game road trip, the birds sit atop the AL East with a 3-1 record. They’re putting up runs. They’re playing defense and situational offense. They’re running the bases. They won a game using the ‘opener’ strategy. David Hess is a god.

Somehow, especially after watching the Opening Day bludgeoning they took at the hand of the Yankees, it felt like the O’s may not manage to win a game. Now, just a few days later, they’re on a 3-game winning streak, an impressive start for Brandon Hyde that has some wondering if the team is underrated. Now, enough of the jokes

It’s not.

The Orioles are not a good team. In all likelihood, even if they leave the Rogers Centre with a sweep, they’ll be 5-4 three days later after the Bronx Bombers come back through for the home opener. Looking up and down the roster, it’s probably one of the worst I can remember, especially on the offensive side of things. Sure, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar, and Dwight Smith Jr. look like they could be a force, but even if those three stay relatively solid throughout the year, Villar will be dealt and the rest of the team will be so awful that their performance won’t make a difference. That’s just the reality of things.

But here’s the catch: As much as it would be a blast for the Orioles to make a shocking, all-time Cinderella story run to the postseason this year, it is actually better for the team for them to have a taste of success at the beginning and end of the season, sandwiching a league-worst campaign overall.

At the end of the day, the most important factor for the Orioles’ rebuild is for Mike Elias to nail the June draft for the next few years. That’s where the O’s will get the stars of the future. Now, considering their circumstance this year, Elias and his crew have the best chance to succeed in the draft if they have their pick of the lot. Typically, the top five picks in the draft are all terrific options, so if they Orioles remain at the bottom of the MLB for the next 2 or 3 seasons before showing signs of promise and kicking off the upward trend, we have things to be excited about. Realistically, they will; The only question is whether or not it will stay that way longer than it should.

The Orioles might have a winning record while I’m writing this, but let’s be very clear: that won’t be the case in a week. While all of that’s going down, though, don’t let it get you down. This team is fun, they play hard, and they will improve over time. If you’re a real, educated fan, you’ll stick around for the ride.

Orioles 2019 Season Predictions!

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As the Orioles get set to embark on what may be a tough campaign, it’s clear that the most enjoyable approach for fans to take is to watch the development of certain players. While I would normally just predict the averages of what I believe will be the Opening Day lineup and rotation, I’ll dedicate some of this week’s blog to predicting when certain players will be called up and how they’ll perform.

The Basics:

This is what I believe will be the Opening Day starting lineup and pitching rotation, with projected numbers.

  1. RF Joey Rickard – .270/15/58
  2. CF Cedric Mullins – .252/20/65
  3. 2B Jonathan Villar – .273/18/68
  4. LF Trey Mancini – .288/28/89
  5. DH Mark Trumbo – .268/24/80
  6. C Chance Sisco – .255/21/72
  7. 1B Chris Davis – .203/16/50
  8. 3B Rio Ruiz – .249/18/61
  9. Richie Martin – .254/12/67

     Bench (3): C Pedro Severino, UTL Drew Jackson, OF Dwight Smith Jr.

Obviously, this lineup is nothing to get excited about, but it will have some fresh faces and youth that will be fun to watch. Next, here are my projections for the starting rotation.

  1. Alex Cobb: 13-15, 4.24 ERA
  2. Dylan Bundy: 16-12, 3.98 ERA
  3. Andrew Cashner: 11-13, 4.88 ERA
  4. David Hess: 9-15, 5.04 ERA
  5. Mike Wright: 3-7, 5.23 ERA

     Bullpen (8): Michael Givens, Richard Bleier, Miguel Castro, Paul Fry, Nate
Karns, John Means, Jimmy Yacabonis, Pedro Araujo

In all honesty, I’m not fully conceding that the Orioles’ front-end of the rotation will be awful. I think Cobb showed signs of turning the corner at the end of the season and could be in for a decent year, and I would love to see Bundy progress into someone the team can consistently rely on over the course of a full season. As for the back-end, I think it’ll be pretty dreadful, and if you notice my expectations for Mike Wright, I believe he’ll break camp with the team before quickly proving to be an illegitimate option and getting cut. In his place, I expect Elias to give multiple pitchers shots, including Josh Rogers, Yefry Ramirez, Keegan Akin, Luis Ortiz, Dean Kremer, and Dillon Tate.

Call-Up Predictions:

Now that all the numbers are sorted out, I think the more important part of this season is seeing when certain players will be called up to the major league club. Here are all the prospects I think will be given an opportunity, as well as when I think they’re shot will make sense.

OF Austin Hays: June 10th

He will be the first major prospect called up to the Orioles, in my opinion. Hays showed very well this spring and I believe was simply sent down to see if he can replicate the performance in AAA. I believe he will be called up in an Orioles off day when the team has been fed up with Chris Davis. The corresponding move will be to put Mancini at first and Hays in left.

OF Anthony Santander: June 17th

Early-to-mid June will be the start of the youth movement for the Orioles. At this point, I’m fairly certain that their fate will be settled, and because I don’t expect Dwight Smith Jr. to be much of a factor, I feel that a strong start to the season by Santander could land him a starting spot in right field with the Orioles. As a result of that, Joey Rickard will become the defensive replacement. In an exciting string of moves, the Orioles’ new look outfield will go: Hays, Mullins, Santander.

INF Ryan Mountcastle: July 20th

At this point in the season, it’s very possible that Mark Trumbo will have been dealt, even if it was just for low-level prospects. With that move, however, an opening is generated at DH, and I feel that it could make sense to put Mountcastle up for MLB at-bats in a sort of platoon with Rio Ruiz between third and DH. I know the O’s are fiddling with Mountcastle at first, but in my opinion, that position should be Trey Mancini’s for now.

SP Hunter Harvey: August 5th

Perhaps this is the most surprising call up that I’m making this year, but Hunter Harvey needs to be given his shot to start sometime, and I think it’ll be in early August of this year. At that point, it’s very possible that one or two of the three main starters in the O’s rotation have been traded, and that many of the other options (Ramirez, Ortiz, Rogers, etc.) have been given their chance. Sure, it’s possible that one or two of those guys will stick and force Harvey to stay in the minors for 2019, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Elias wants to see what he has in Harvey at the major league level once he demonstrates improved health.

OF Yusniel Diaz: September Call Ups

For some reason, I feel that Diaz will be the last of the Orioles’ outfield prospects at AAA to make it to the majors. Without a doubt, he is their most promising player in the minor league system, and I wonder if that will lead Elias to refrain from starting his clock. Needless to say, Diaz’s debut will be an exciting day/night for the Orioles, I just feel that it will come later than many expect.

Pitchers that the Elias/Hyde/Mejdal Regime Could Fix

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As the new Orioles regime readies itself for the start of the 2019 regular season, one of the most important measuring sticks for the season will be the progression of a plethora of prospects or players that could impact the ballclub in the future. Of course, this is a massive point of emphasis for the new faces of the club: Mike Elias, Brandon Hyde, and Sig Mejdal. To that point, the Astros, who the Orioles may find themselves to be molded after, enjoyed tremendous production from their pitching rotation and bullpen. A major factor of those groups’ success, though, was the sudden progression of arms such as Dallas Keuchal and Collin McHugh. With the brain trust behind those success stories moving to Baltimore, which Orioles pitchers could find similar improvements with the mentality shift and introduction of new technologies and analytics?

1. Brandon Kline

Kline has struggled with injuries over the last few seasons, making him a relatively old pitcher to be in the minor leagues. However, he has an extremely live arm and has flashed immense potential, even if he hasn’t quite put things together enough to regularly crack the big league bullpen. Kline was recently moved down to Norfolk, which suggests that Elias and the analytics crew have a few tweaks to give to him to work on. If Kline is able to make a few adjustments to hone his arm and consistently throw strikes, he has the stuff to turn into a strong back-end contributor.

2. Miguel Castro

I fully expect Castro to be on the Opening Day roster as a long reliever. Although the Orioles did not elect to stretch him out into a starter this Spring, the uncertainty surrounding the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation have led them to discuss using openers, as the Rays did last year. If they do take this route, Castro seems to be the ideal candidate to snag that role, and I feel that he is just a few adjustments away from being a real weapon. Castro’s arm is electric, which is why he has been able to stick on the club for the last few years, but he struggles with control and the long ball. With Brandon Hyde and the pitching staff working with Castro, perhaps we could see a breakout year for the 24-year-old hurler.

3. Pedro Araujo

Araujo is currently one of the more interesting arms in the Orioles’ system because of his status as a Rule-5 project. While we know the Elias regime has no connection to the player, who was selected by Dan Duquette last year, I am a believer that any additions to this farm system are a good thing. The Orioles only have to hold onto Araujo for a few weeks, and he seems to have a decent arsenal of pitches that he simply struggles to consistently control. At the same time, Araujo is just 25 years old, with plenty of time to develop. He’s certainly more of a project than someone like Castro would be, but he could develop into a bullpen piece down the road.

4. Luis Ortiz

This pitcher is a complex guy for the Orioles to work with, as he certainly has the stuff to be a mid-rotation starter, though he has struggled with weight and injury in the past. What I would imagine Elias and the rest of the staff will do is get Ortiz on a health plan to improve his weight and get him in the best shape of his professional career. Once that happens, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ortiz work his way up the ranks and into the rotation for good. We know this guy is talented, or else he wouldn’t have been such a highly-touted return piece for Schoop; now it’s up to Elias to get the most out of him.

5. Chris Lee

Chris Lee was all the rage two years ago — he had the stuff, he just didn’t have the consistency. At that point, he seemed to be an exciting player who would be making waves in either the bullpen or the rotation by 2019. Yet, last year, Lee struggled immensely, significantly lowering his stock in the Orioles’ minor league system. To me, this is the kind of player that would be intriguing for Elias to work with, as he’s shown the ability to flash and make a career for himself. He’s a little older, at 26 years old, but if they moved him into a late relief role his plus fastball could be dangerous.

6. Cody Sedlock

We talked about Sedlock a bit on the podcast a few weeks ago, but this guy really fell off the major league radar after a tough start to his professional career. A former first-round pick, Sedlock has all the talent in the world, which could once again make him very intriguing to Elias. While I don’t know too much about Sedlock as a pitcher, especially what he offers in terms of pitches, I’d have to think that a change of roles or even simply the shift in mindset that comes with a new regime could swing things back in the right direction for the 23-year-old righty.

Response to Free Agency Frenzy

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I held off on this blog earlier in the week because I knew that things would be going down with the start of the new NFL league year, and I was right — there’s a lot to unpack. With surprising departures and additions, the Ravens are bound to look much different this year, and the past week or so has been Eric DeCosta’s first stretch of multiple moves that will play a part in defining his success as the team’s GM.

Starting first with the departures, the Ravens cut Eric Weddle before losing Terrell Suggs, CJ Mosley, and Za’Darius Smith in free agency. Needless to say, each of those players had immense roles in the league’s top defense last year, and their leadership, even more than their production, will be sorely missed. As disappointing the first few days of free agency were, I stand by each of DeCosta’s moves not to bring these guys back. First, looking at Eric Weddle and Terrell Suggs, both players ended up being liabilities and non-factors on the playing field, outside of the cerebral benefit they brought in organizing the group. Sure, they were well-liked in the locker room and were important to holding the unit together, but at their price-points, it didn’t make any sense to keep them.

That factor — money — is the same reason why letting Mosley and Smith walk was the right choice, as well. Clearly, the franchise tag cost was too much for the Ravens to commit to CJ Mosley over a week ago. With the Jets offering him around $3 million more, why would that stance change? He is a good player, not a great player, and in reality, he isn’t a true 3-down linebacker. As for Za’Darius Smith, he was the player I thought would be most valuable to bring back because of his ability to rush from both the interior and outside of the line. With that in mind, the money that he received from Green Bay was far too much for the Ravens to match, and therefore I can’t complain about the decision.

I believe the reaction around Baltimore, which was one of desperation, was a relatively fair response to DeCosta’s lack of aggression in the market while franchise stalwarts left to go elsewhere. I even felt like the Ravens needed to do something. Those feelings were only heightened when the Cleveland Browns made a colossal move in trading for Odell Beckham Jr. What a job by them, I must say — it put tremendous pressure on the rest of the division, particularly the Ravens, to keep up. After that Week-17 matchup, everyone was talking about how it’d be Browns/Ravens in this division for the next few years, but at that point, it was just the Browns.

Almost immediately, I became certain of one thing: the Ravens would retaliate by making a last-ditch offer to Le’Veon Bell. Here was my thinking — if the Browns bring in a superstar, there’s no better time for the Ravens to do the same than when their QB is on a rookie deal. Of course, we no know that Bell chose to sign with the Jets, and it has even been rumored that the Ravens did not even extend an offer. Looking at what the Jets paid for Bell’s services, I do sort of wish that Baltimore had gone all-in, even if it is unlike them to pay big money in free agency, much less for running backs.

Ultimately, the Ravens did make a splash, but instead of adding it to the offense, it was made to revamp the defense that had recently been decimated. In acquiring Earl Thomas, the Ravens answered a lot of questions about the state of the defense. If healthy, Thomas will be a bonified playmaker who will help Tony Jefferson flourish as an in-the-box safety in a way that Weddle could not. The Ravens now have a safety who can cover, and I am extremely hopeful that this will bring a major improvement to the coverage of tight ends and slot receivers over the middle. Sure, it’s a lot of money invested into a safety, but as stated by Maurice Jones-Drew on the NFL Network, Thomas is the closest thing to Ed Reed we’ve seen since Ed Reed. I love this move.

The move I am less supportive of is that to bring in Mark Ingram. I get that Ingram is a productive runner who may be an upgrade over Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon, but as much as pundits want to say that he does, I don’t believe that he brings a new dimension to the Ravens’ rushing attack. In Le’Veon Bell, the Ravens would have gotten a great runner, but more importantly a great receiver out of the backfield. Analysts will say that Ingram can catch the ball in space, but can he actually change the game in space the way that other Ravens backs can’t? Throw in his age and the toll taken on his body after 10 seasons as a bruising back, and I can’t imagine that the Ravens got something the platoon of Edwards and Dixon can’t give them. Even if it is for a smaller salary, I felt that if the Ravens should have spent on a RB in free agency it should have either been Bell or Tevin Coleman, both of which have breakaway skills. Otherwise, they should have addressed the position in the draft — which I still feel that they may do.

The biggest question at this point is where these additions and subtractions leave the Ravens front office now. Obviously, the two most glaring holes remain at wide receiver and interior offensive line, with new holes at the EDGE and the middle linebacker positions surfacing. In all likelihood, some of these positions will be addressed in the later waves of free agency, with others being filled through the draft.

If I were Eric DeCosta, my first priority would be working through the pool of players who are cut after their former teams sign free agents. Where I trust the Ravens the most in this way is in answering the questions at interior O-line. In my opinion, Baltimore should look to find a starting-caliber player at either guard or center, filling the other position with a potential starter through the draft in April.

With wide receiver, I think it makes sense for the Ravens to target a complementary guy, most likely someone who can play outside, though I fully expect DeCosta to double-dip at the position relatively early in the draft.

At edge rusher, I do see the sense in bringing in a player like Justin Houston (mostly because he would not affect the comp-pick formula for 2020), though I don’t know if he will price himself out of the Ravens’ range. Instead, a player like Shaquille Barrett could make sense, as he will likely command a less lucrative deal because of his situation playing behind Von Miller and Bradley Chubb in Denver. Again, this is a position I expect to address early in the draft, potentially even in the first round, and I believe they may end up putting a great deal of pressure on young rushers Tyus Bowser and Timmy Williams to step things up this coming season. If one of those guys can become what Za’Darius Smith was, any addition of another solid rusher through the draft or free agency would offset any other losses at this position and give the Ravens the ability to get a solid rush off at opposing QBs.

The last glaring position of need here is inside linebacker, and this is the spot in which the Ravens’ loss in free agency could loom the largest. CJ Mosley was undoubtedly a leader of the team and did have a great impact on each game that he played in, so the team could certainly look to mitigate that loss by signing someone like Zach Brown from Washington. However, if I were Eric DeCosta, this is the position in which I would rely the most on younger players who are given their shot to make an impact. Compared to pass rush, safety, or wideout, this position seems to have the most promising combination of youth in Peanut Onwuasor and Kenny Young, and I believe that Bam Bradley could fill in a rotational role in rushing downs while Anthony Levine and Chuck Clark fill in on passing downs. Both Peanut and Young showed great flashes last year — I feel DeCosta could be doing the team a disservice if he attempts to find a stop-gap at the position. The Ravens have always been good at developing late-round or undrafted linebackers, let’s see if they can do it again.

Do the Ravens Have to Pick in the First Round?

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After an outstanding combine performance, any hope of the Ravens landing Ole Miss wideout DK Metcalf seems to be a pipe dream. The dude is clearly an athletic freak poised to dominate at the next level. Obviously, that sounds like a player the Ravens would love to get their hands on, but the job he did in Indianapolis this weekend may have helped him leap into the top-10 or at least top-15. As we know, the Ravens have pick 22 this April. Despite my disappointment that Metcalf won’t be available, I’m not really that concerned. I didn’t necessarily think it was imperative for DeCosta and company to take a wideout first, and I see another scenario that could prove much more advantageous for the Ravens.

Barring an absolute stud like Devin White or Clelin Ferrell dropping in the first round, I think it makes a ton of sense for the Ravens to get out of their pick 22 and move back, perhaps accumulating a second rounder or another third rounder in the process. I’m not sure which teams could be candidates for such a move, and I’ll look into that later when I do a full mock draft, but to me, Baltimore needs as many shots at drafting players as possible this year. That’s especially true since there isn’t an absolute given WR-1 in this draft, not like AJ Green was, anyway.

If it’s unlikely to grab an outright dominant talent in the first round, why not trade back, get an immediate starter at another position, and afford yourself the opportunity to have an extra shot at a Day 2 target who might have equally high potential.

To think about this deeper, I’m going to bring about the hypothetical, including players, just off the top of my head. Obviously, as more information comes out on all prospects from Pro Days and events like that, these players could easily move around boards. Still, I think my point will be illustrated. So here’s the deal I see the Ravens making:

Colts Receive: Ravens pick #22

Ravens Receive: Colts picks #34 & 59, 2020 late-round pick

Let’s say Clemson DT Christian Wilkins is available and the Colts want to add a dominant defensive lineman to their rebuilding defense. This trade would take Baltimore out of the first round, but only by two spots, and would give them 4 picks on Day 2. This is where I see a lot of talented value at positions of need for the Ravens. With that in mind, here are some players I could see being available at each spot.

Pick 34:

1. Wideouts: Marquise Brown (Oklahoma), N’Keal Harry (Arizona State), Kelvin Harmon, (NC State)

I don’t think each of these players would be available at this point, or else I would suggest that DeCosta trade back again, but I do think at least one of them will be. In Brown, the Ravens would add a true burner and playmaker, while Harmon and Harry would provide Jackson a big, tough target to trust. If the Ravens were able to get any of these guys while adding another 2nd-round pick, that’d be tremendous.

2. Offensive Linemen: Chris Lindstrom (Boston College), Dalton Risner (Kansas State), Erik McCoy (Texas A&M)

Just like DK Metcalf, Garrett Bradbury, the center from NC State, had a great weekend in Indy, likely taking him out of the Ravens range. With these three linemen, however, Baltimore could have a great option of adding athleticism and immediate contribution to the O-Line.

3. Other intriguing possibilities: Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama), Deionte Thompson (S, Alabama), Taylor Rapp (S, Washington), Jaylen Ferguson (DE, Louisiana Tech), Zach Allen (DE, Boston College)

These players all fill positions of need that I could see Baltimore attacking in rounds 3 and 4. If they are available, it’s very possible that DeCosta decides to go with the best player, which many of these guys could be at this point.

Pick 59:

1. Wideouts: AJ Brown (Ole Miss), Hakeem Butler (Iowa State), Riley Ridley (Georgia), Deebo Samuel (South Carolina)

If I were the GM in this kind of situation, this is where I’d strike at the WR position. All of these players are fascinating prospects: Brown had much more production than his teammate Metcalf did, Butler is 6’6” and fast (and he’s from Baltimore), Ridley has explosive talent and has a brother the Ravens seemed to be interested in, and Samuel had been a solid prospect over the last two years in college.

2. Running Backs: Devin Singletary (Florida Atlantic), David Montgomery (Iowa State), Miles Sanders (Penn State)

Rounds 2 and 3 are always a gold mine for running backs, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Ravens make the move here. Again, all three of these guys would be intriguing, but my hope would be Miles Sanders.

3. Other intriguing possibilities: Beau Benzschawel (OL, Wisconsin), Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S, Florida), Jalen Jelks, (EDGE, Oregon), Charles Omenihu (DL, Texas)

Again, these guys would be all about best player available, as they all seem to be special talents. With DeCosta likely leaning offense with the first few picks, I’d be surprised if both ended up being defensive players, but if someone like Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, a real ball-hawk, were available, I wouldn’t doubt that the Ravens would pull the trigger.

With this sort of scenario, the Ravens are afforded a crack at a solid but not amazing receiver, while also adding a pick to go after the holes along the offensive line early and even improving overall by adding a strong running back, edge rusher, or back-end piece. What’s more, adding a pick might make the Ravens more willing to spend a Day-3 pick on someone like Andy Isabella from UMass, who I really like as a weapon for this new offense.

What I’m Excited to See This Spring

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With the Orioles’ first few Spring Training games in the books, I think it’s time for me to take a look at some of the things to be excited about for the next month or so. The O’s are starting a whole new regime, from GM to manager to mindset, and it could bring a whole new energy to baseball in Baltimore in the coming years. As we all know, there are a number of prospects to keep an eye on this year, from Yusniel Diaz to Ryan Mountcastle to DL Hall. But, as it’s my job to add a little extra insight, here are a few players that might be flying under the radar who could be interesting guys to follow this spring.

1. Ryan McKenna, OF

McKenna burst onto the scene last year, taking huge strides at the plate to complement his plus speed and glove in centerfield. The outfielder made his way all the way to AA Bowie, and while he is probably at least a year away from being an actual big-league contributor, McKenna has a chance to make a statement in Sarasota as a non-roster invitee. If he can continue to get on base at a solid clip, he has the potential to be a regular for the Orioles, and that’s why MLB Pipeline named him as their 7th best prospect coming into 2019.

2. Alcides Escobar, SS

There’s been a lot of talk about the Rule-5 picks Richie Martin and Drew Jackson this offseason, and for good reason: the Orioles should be inclined to keep at least one of them on the roster all year. However, much of the discussion is about Richie Martin taking the starting role at shortstop in 2019, especially if his bat continues to produce. However, Escobar is the type of addition that could be interesting for Brandon Hyde. He is certainly a proven veteran and, in my eyes, is the favorite to start at short on Opening Day. That could spell trouble for whichever Rule-5 selection performs worse this spring.

3. Dillon Tate, SP

Tate was the big piece that the Orioles received from the Yankees in return for Zack Britton. If I recall correctly, he was once a very well-liked prospect in New York’s system and showed a lot of potential before taking a step back last year. He didn’t perform great when he got to Bowie in August, but if he can find his stride again he could be an intriguing player. After all, the Orioles are lacking depth in starting pitching and could find themselves working a bit of a carousel at the 4 and 5 spots this year. If Tate pitches well, his name could be thrown into that mix.

4. Richard Bleier, RP

Okay, this guy isn’t a prospect or new addition, but before you jump on me, let me explain why he’s an important player to watch. If you think about it, as the O’s approach the trade deadline this summer, might there be no better player to flip than Bleier? Before getting injured last year, Bleier was one of the Orioles’ best bullpen arms. On top of that, the reliever has become increasingly coveted at the deadline for contending teams. While Bleier isn’t Brad Hand, who the Indians dealt won of their top prospects for last year, he could bring back a very solid return if he comes back well this year.

5. Austin Hays, OF

The Orioles have a decent crop of outfield prospects at the moment, but one of their better and yet somehow overlooked ones is Austin Hays. Just two years ago, before I even wrote for the podcast, Hays was a very exciting talent that Jason and Jerry were incredibly excited about. He was hitting, fielding, running, and doing it all in Bowie before the Orioles called him up in September. Last year, Hays had a tough campaign that was hurt by injuries, but I think it’s a very real expectation for him to get back to his prior production and make himself a candidate to be called up again by the end of the year.

Goodbye, Sweet Prince

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Before we get into the GM-side of what went down last Thursday, let’s be real for a second. It doesn’t matter if you think Joe Flacco is awful, just okay, or elite — he’s the best quarterback the Baltimore Ravens have ever had on their roster. You could argue, outside of Ray Lewis, that Flacco has been the most impactful player to ever wear the purple and black. Sure, he’ll never be a Pro Football Hall of Famer, but he’ll be a Ravens Hall of Famer. The year after he calls it quits he’ll be back at M&T Bank Stadium to have his name hoisted onto the side of the upper bowl. How will we receive the Flacco family that afternoon? I hope – and I think – it will be with resounding gratitude and appreciation for what he did for the franchise.

Has there ever been a more classy yet polarizing figure in Baltimore sports? From the start of his career to the finish, Joe Flacco went about his business with the utmost professionalism, and for more years than not, he went about his real business – quarterbacking the Ravens – very well. He won rookie of the year and led Baltimore to the AFC Championship game in 2008. He won the AFC North and outplayed Tom Brady in Foxborough in 2011. He had one of the best postseason runs in NFL history in 2012, completing the Mile High Miracle, getting over the hump that was the Championship game, and lifted the Lombardi Trophy as MVP. For the first 7 seasons he started all 16 games. As much as people wanted to label him as inconsistent, he was actually the opposite, stabilizing the QB position in Baltimore. For all the success he brought to this organization — and for being the only guy I can remember taking snaps — I must say, thank you, Joe.

Now, turning the page and sitting in Eric DeCosta’s seat, I must say, we may have swindled Denver here. I know a lot of people may have hoped for more in return, but if you actually stop to think about the circumstances under which the Ravens were trading Flacco, DeCosta has done a terrific job. Consider the situation: Flacco had been playing awful football for the previous five years or so before being replaced by a youngster widely viewed as a project. On top of that, everyone knew that the Ravens were ending their relationship with Flacco, even if that meant cutting him. Even more, Flacco’s contract was a hefty sum of money for any team to take on (though that could be irrelevant if the team had cut him). Therefore, the only reason to trade for the slinger was to eliminate the bidding war that could take place in free agency.

After looking at all that, it makes sense to compare this trade to that made by the Kansas City Chiefs last year. Alex Smith, KC’s quarterback for the past few years, had taken the Chiefs to the playoffs regularly and had performed at an exceptional level in the 2017 season. He had a similar contract to the one Flacco commands today, but there was not an overwhelming knowledge that he would be leaving the team, giving the Chiefs leverage that the Ravens didn’t have. Here are the official details of that trade:

Redskins receive: Alex Smith

Chiefs receive: Kendall Fuller, 2018 3rd-round draft pick (NT Derrick Nnadi)

Given the circumstances, I think the Ravens did a beautiful job of getting decent value for Flacco when everyone knew that he was a goner. Especially knowing how well the Ravens have done in the fourth round in recent years (Kenny Young, Tavon Young, Chris Moore, Alex Lewis, Willie Henry, Za’Darius Smith, Buck Allen), it looks we might be getting a solid contributor in return for the former signal-caller.

If we look at the three moves that Eric DeCosta has made early in his career as GM, all of the decisions have been whoppers. First, as one of the first things he did after officially filling the role, DeCosta said goodbye to offensive coordinator Marty Morhninweg. That move was well-praised across Baltimore. Next, the Ravens extended John Harbaugh for 4 more years, committing to him as the man to ring in the new regime. Though it wasn’t as widely renowned, I’d still say this was appreciated by the majority. Finally, on Thursday morning, DeCosta dealt Joe Flacco to Denver for a 4th-round pick. Thank you, Eric; Thank you, Joe.

Early Opening Day 25-Man Predictions

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The Orioles will send their pitchers and catchers down to Sarasota today to begin the Spring Training workouts. The 2019 campaign figures to be a rough one for O’s fans, but one exciting thing to watch will be the operations of new GM Mike Elias and Manager Brandon Hyde. With that in mind, one of the first big decisions those two have to make will be the team’s Opening Day 25-man roster. Of course, it’s a very real possibility that one or more players who make that final squad aren’t yet on the 40-man, and it’s also worth noting that there will be a great deal of shuffling of youth talent this year. Still, I am interested enough to make my own early predictions for the way things will shake out before any games take place. Here’s my outlook on what the Opening Day roster will be.

Pitchers: Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner, Nate Karns, David Hess, Mychal Givens, Richard Bleier, Miguel Castro, Paul Fry, Tanner Scott, Brandon Kline, Jimmy Yacabonis

With the addition of Nate Karns, the starting rotation became a bit easier to predict. I think that David Hess is the most “ready” of all the options for that number 5 spot in the rotation, which will give him that role to start the season, but guys like Yefry Ramirez, Luis Ortiz, and even John Means or Keegan Akin could push for this spot in short time. As for the bullpen, the only potential surprise in who I’ve selected is Brandon Kline. He had a nice season last year and seems to be one of the potential arms to find his way to Camden Yards this summer, so I’m going to go ahead and say that he has a strong enough spring to break camp with the birds.

Catchers: Austin Wynns, Chance Sisco, Jesus Sucre

This was the toughest decision for me, actually. Chance Sisco had something of a lost season last year, and I’m sure everyone hopes that he can prove himself this coming year. It might make sense to give him reps in Norfolk if he doesn’t have a strong spring, but given the possibility of drafting the catcher Adley Rutschman in the draft this year, Elias might want to see if Sisco shows signs of potential in the majors, at least for a little while.

Infielders: Chris Davis, Jonathan Villar, Richie Martin, Drew Jackson, Renato Nunez

The only intriguing thing about this position group are the Rule-5 players. In my opinion, the Orioles should keep both men on board out of Spring Training, unless someone else jumps out as a must-have on the roster. If anyone were to do that, I’d have my money on Steve Wilkerson, but I don’t see him having the bat to force Elias away from holding onto both Martin and Jackson.

Outfielders: Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, Cedric Mullins, DJ Stewart, Eric Young Jr.

Once again, this position group wasn’t too difficult. The Orioles did recently add Eric Young Jr. to the group, which was somewhat surprising to me off the bat, but after thinking for a little while I think his role is going to be a defensive and speed replacement and a veteran clubhouse guy. I like him as someone to mentor Cedric Mullins in his first full season in the big leagues. When this group (and potentially the infield, as well) will get interesting is going to be around the Trade Deadline, when Mark Trumbo could – and should – get moved. That’s when players like Ryan McKenna, Austin Hays, or Anthony Santander could find themselves vouching for a spot on the roster.